Futurist Lab

Month

April 2012

20 posts

How Geniuses Think

Future research on intelligence…

jackmason:

After considerable debate initiated by J. P. Guilford, a leading psychologist who called for a scientific focus on creativity in the sixties, psychologists reached the conclusion that creativity is not the same as intelligence. An individual can be far more creative than he or she is intelligent, or far more intelligent than creative.


http://pulse.me/s/8J1bD

Apr 30, 20121 note
#futurist #thought leadership
Google and Facebook Grow Comfortable and Complacent - Nick Bilton via NYTimes.com → bits.blogs.nytimes.com

Google and Facebook will fail…

stoweboyd:

Nick Bilton thinks Facebook and Google are slow to get mobile — several meanings of ‘get’ intended — because the engineers and managers there are relatively sessile (go look it up):

Nick Bilton via NYTimes.com

I have a theory on why they both have been slow to capitalize on the shift to mobile.

It’s that working at these companies is like going to work on an all-inclusive cruise ship. The analogy is apt in terms of the luxury — and the isolation.

An employee’s day often begins with a comfy shuttle bus whisking him or her to work in Silicon Valley. The buses have Wi-Fi, so laptops are put to work before anyone arrives on the sprawling campuses.

Once there, dozens of free breakfast options await. Free buffet lunches break the monotony of the day. There is free dinner, too. There are free snacks for those peckish between meals. (The stuff that’s bad for you is on the hard-to-reach lower shelves.)

All of this is wonderful for the employees — and of course well deserved — but these perks could be stultifying. At some of these Silicon Valley businesses, there is no reason to leave the office.

There are on-campus gyms. Day care. Massages. Dry cleaning. Car rentals. (At the Google offices, some of the toilets even have heated seats.)

Sadly, this isn’t how the rest of the world works.

Most people actually have to leave their offices to get coffee. While wandering out into the real world, we unfortunates tend to do a lot with our mobile phones.

We look for new restaurants, check in with location-based apps, share short pithy updates about things we’ve seen in this outside world, and take pictures of food and sunsets.

I’m betting that the Googlers and Facebookers don’t see as much outside, since all these perks are meant to keep people working as long as possible.

Perhaps there is something even more powerful at work, here: the self-centered, self-important mindset that is engendered in these world-beater companies tends to encourage a strong tie to the period of time when the companies became successful, which is three to five years ago. These companies — like Microsoft and Yahoo before them — became mired in the past, like mammoths and saber-tooth tigers sinking in the La Brea tar pits.

Apr 27, 201231 notes
#futurist
Apr 27, 201227 notes
#futurist #television #radio #media
Play
Apr 27, 2012
#podcast #social media #futurist #brand champions
Why Content is the Ultimate Strategy (Social@Ogilvy Blog Post) → social.ogilvy.com

This one’s getting a lot of RTs on Twitter and better many are engaging with the piece. The point is that good and controversial and debatable content leads to conversation and engagement. The web is a freeway of flowing traffic with diverse viewpoints. When will people understand that they do not control the conversation anymore?

Apr 25, 20121 note
#futurist #ogilvy #social media #content strategy
“Pushing back against the failures of our leaders and institutions—and the resulting lack of trust—is a growing movement of people and organizations taking the initiative to share, engage, connect, solve problems, and demand some control over their future. While we wait for our leaders to act, thousands are looking at the leader in the mirror and taking action.” —Arianna Huffington On The Rise Of Empathy In America | Co.Exist: World changing ideas and innovation (via futuristgerd)
Apr 23, 201234 notes
Apr 23, 201220 notes
Everything We Think We Know About People Is Wrong - Stowe Boyd  → worktalk.ly

futuramb:

stoweboyd:

The result of a great deal of cognitive science research demonstrates that people don’t really understand how we think, how we influence each other, and the degree to which we are connected. We also lack an understanding of water, which is the most common liquid on Earth:

Everything We Think We Know About People Is Wrong - Stowe Boyd via Nexalogy blog:

[…] It turns out that people — and marketers — don’t really understand influence very well, despite being embedded in social networks their entire lives: we really don’t understand the way that we are influenced by other people. For example, if someone touches you when you first meet, you are ten times more likely to remember that person. But we are unaware, later, that the touch was the reason for our recollection. We underestimate the impact of a kind word, or the chilling effects of workplace fear. There are dozens of examples of this sort coming out of cognitive science that demonstrate that we are being strongly influenced below the conscious level, physiologically, all the time. The actions of others can make us fearful, or confident, or curious, or suspicious — and it can happen invisibly. People just don’t have a great insight into the social interactions of people, despite being involved in them. Most contemporary thinking about our social interactions is derived from an economic view that considers groups as collections of individuals, where each individual makes more-or-less rational decisions intended to maximize benefits to themselves and their loved ones. I think there is a analogy with the historical physics view of how fluids work, like water, or water specifically.

read more at Nexalogy blog

That is - in line with the scientific knowledge of our minds - because knowledge is more socially constructed and defended than we think it is. (Yes, it is a recursive truth…)

Apr 23, 201256 notes
#futurist #cognitive science
Apr 23, 201259 notes
#futurist #city government
Gizmodo: Judging by Google popularity, the word "tumblr" will be a more common search term than "blog" before the end of the year.  → gizmodo.com
Apr 16, 201224 notes
‘Every Company Should Have a Community Manager’ → socialtimes.com

Companies have always believed they control the messaging. But they don’t. A CM allows one to keep the pulse on what people are saying about you. And those that take this information to use it for product enhancement are using the CM as an open source model.

Apr 13, 2012
Digital Communities of the Future Forecast

Recommendations on how digital communities in the future will operate (published originally on March 5th)

In 2-3 years:

  • As mobile takes a more relevant role, communities that are mobile-friendly will be of utmost importance. With the changes to Facebook, the network is more mobile-optimized. The same thing in regard to Twitter. Programs like Instagram and Socialcam will be purchased and integrated more into the open-graph structure of social communities.
  • Location-based services will also play a larger role as mobile technology takes on a bigger role, the importance of real-time action will also play a large role. One reason why Foursquare grew by 3400% in 2011 and will also grow even larger moving forward. People will be into seeing what their friends and family are doing in real time so it influences and inspires them.
  • Video two-way communication will become much larger as fibre-optic cable becomes commonplace with broadband companies. As a result of this, communities that have video integration ala Skype/Socialcam, etc. will be very popular. Think of Google hangouts becoming simply their own communities. Plus the ability to speak from a camera mounted on your computer, HD TV or mobile will allow for a picture that makes it appear as if the person you are speaking with is right outside your window.

5-10 years:

  • Niche communities will become dominant as the interest graph becomes just as important than one’s social graph. Economics will play a role as a barter/collaborative economy requires one’s interest graph to be just as important than a social graph. As a result, people will spend time on both, with social graphs being hubs where they want to connect with friends/family
  • The Social Web will evolve from a social relationship (2007) to an era of social colonization where every experience is social (2012/2013) to one where it will be an era of social commerce (communities define future products and services) in 2015. This is something all companies and businesses must be prepared for where open source communication helps define their goods and services. It is in the long term of social communities but will be prevalent by 2017 and beyond if not sooner due to rapid innovation based on enhancements in communication between brands and consumers.
  • In the most radical future scenario, content will come to consumers rather than consumers chasing it around the web. Corporate websites might need to be fragmented and place more emphasis on the social web. The most important information must live within earned channels where they have more chance of being seen and not simply on owned channels which require paid media to get one to the destination.

Apr 10, 20122 notes
#futurist #innovation #social media #digital communities #instagram #Facebook #twitter #socialcam
Play
Apr 10, 20121 note
#futurist #PC #internet #world wide web
9 Bold Predictions for the Digital World of 2020

futuresagency:

Seen on Mashable: “Do you daydream about the future? We thought so. But rather than bore you with our frivolous wish lists (which are mostly comprised of hoverboards and self-lacing shoes), we have asked nine leading futurists to share their visions of the digital world of 2020. Click through the slideshow to see…read on.”

image

Apr 10, 201298 notes
“

The historic lesson seems forgotten that oligarchies and monopolies stifle growth, that we only can grow by building upon each others efforts. Sharing and trading of (in this case) information will lead to an explosion of productivity and wealth for everyone…”

Ego to eco nice green logoThis is as good of a summary as I anything I could provide: in order to prosper in the future, the ‘wealth’ of nations- and the ‘wealth’ i.e. scope of the commons - must matter more than the wealth of individuals (or indeed, individual companies or organizations) - we must move from Ego to Eco (as in… networked, not (just) as in ‘green).

”
—MediaFuturist: The wealth of information (silos versus ecosystems): we need another Adam Smith (via fromegotoeco)
Apr 9, 20122 notes
The Rise of the Content Strategist - Cheryl Lowry via Flip the Media → flipthemedia.com

emergentfutures:

Paul Higgins: I think there is soemthing going on here but also wary of name changes which sometimes are just wanky marketing or change because people want to look cutting edge

stoweboyd:

futuresagency (stowe boyd):

One way to know that tectonic changes are happening in an industry is to see people’s titles change when they aren’t being promoted. Newest example? Editors are becoming Content Strategists, and there is increasing demand for this ‘new’ specialty:

The Rise of the Content Strategist - Cheryl Lowry via Flip the Media

Kristina Halvorson’s Content Strategy for the Web, first published in 2009, has been a big influence, as Peter notes in his post. In her book, Halvorson defines content strategy as “the practice of planning for the creation, delivery, and governance of useful, usable content.” How does this differ, though, from what professional content writers, editors and managers have been doing all along?

I see it as a question of abundance. When I began writing content, creation was the goal. Marketing copy. User guides. FAQs. Help systems. Writers and editors produced and published words, and moving up the chain meant managing an editorial calendar and other writers to produce ever greater sums of copy. As print gave way to the web, this became considerably easier and cheaper to do. Many companies employed (and still employ) a strategy that web usability expert Gerry McGovern refers to as “launch and leave:” produce a ton of content, and then leave it sitting there unmeasured and unmaintained. Clay Shirky calls this abundance a result of post-Gutenberg economics, in which “the cost of producing [content] has fallen through the floor… .and so [now] there’s no economic logic that says you have to filter for quality before you publish.”

However, several recent trends have contributed to organizations demanding more from content.. The Great Recession, the rise of web analytics, and the voice of the customer amplified by social networks have all given companies more tools and incentive to create and maintain “useful, usable content.” Organizations are now realizing that content ought to earn its keep — it should drive conversion (sales, donations), or reduce call drivers (solve frequent and actual problems customers have). If it doesn’t, it’s just polluting the relevance and searchability of content that does.

So, the content strategist is concerned with the full lifecycle of media, not just production or aggregation. I think this title will absorb the brief rise of ‘content curator’, because it sounds shinier.

Apr 7, 201225 notes
“For many, email is now the master communication channel. But it’s actually a pretty poor one in this age of mobile computing. Email needs to beaten down into just another channel of flowing information.” —

Future of email…

- MG Siegler via parislemon

Siegler is wising up to my desire for liquid email, although he doesn’t call it that. What do I mean by liquid email?

Liquid Email, Stowe Boyd

I am using the term liquid media to represent this new soupy, swirling, turbulent cascade of various media types being pulled into the streaming mess of today’s social media. We see images resolved in Twitter clients without leaving the Twitter stream, and Flipboard yanking articles free of their moorings on the NY Times or Wired, and previewing them for us in the article stream. Every sort of media will be pulled into the flow: soon, television will be repurposed as yet-another-media-type and played in the stream like audio is now.

This is all happening because we will naturally gravitate to the place with the fastest tempo, because the best stuff appears there first. Paradoxically, the places with the strongest flow will seem the most calm, because we won’t be jumping from the stream to the browser and back again a hundred times a day: we will stay in the stream: media content will be harvested, and pulled into context for us.

I think this is going to happen next with email.

Email has its own context: the inbox, the email apps, Outlook. The metaphor is now second nature to us: email comes in, from anyone having our email address, maybe is filtered and categorized, but mostly is shown as a chronological list of discrete messages. If we are lucky, our email tool ties together email threads, although that mechanism is semantically flawed, because a single email can deal with many topics. As a result, email is as messy as we are. But more structure won’t help email. The problem is the metaphor, and as a result, how the metaphor channels our thinking about communication.

Using a beta version of Nimble has caused me to think about a fusion of Twitter and email. That product manages to support both email and Twitter, but not in the way that I am envisioning, although the app is inventive and likely to be a good social CRM offering.

Imagine a liquid model of email, based on Twitter being my preferred context for communication:

  1. I receive email in Gmail. 
  2. A new Twitter client (or a new version of Twitter) — let’s call it Liquidate — captures all my incoming emails from Gmail, and drops a shortened link into my stream for each, with the subject line as the tweet, and associating the email address of the sender to their Twitter handle, if known.
  3. The fact that this is an email would be made obvious in the UI, and I could open the text of the mail — and bring it right into context — by clicking on a link.
  4. I could read the email text, and then respond to the sender either by a Twitter message, direct message, or another email, depending on the circumstance, and based on various criteria, like whether the sender has a Twitter account.
  5. If I opt to reply by email, the client would send that into Gmail, and I would always have Gmail as a repository, if I want to search there.

In essence, I would be treating email messages as just a long format tweet, and using Gmail as an appliance to carry that message from my streaming context out to a world that has not completely switched to Twitter or liquid media. But the activities associated with ‘email’ would be carried out in the streaming context, and the email would be just another sort of media pulled into and then pushed out of the stream. And again, I would always be able to go to Gmail directly, if needed.

I have other thoughts on this, based on using Sparrow recently, which I will have to spell out in the next few days or weeks.

(via stoweboyd)

Apr 7, 20129 notes
Apr 5, 20121 note
Listen Social@Ogilvy Wednesday Wordon Social: Pinterest

Social@Ogilvy Wednesday Word on Social all about Pinterest…

Apr 4, 2012
Article: How to Use Visual Imagery to Sell Your Brand → online.wsj.com

Quotes from Futurist Lab’s Geoffrey Colon on how to use Pinterest and the social web’s evolution into a visual marketplace of ideas…

Apr 2, 2012
#futurist #pinterest #strategy #social media
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